The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Drunken copper brethren | 12/10/15 |
| racy field | 12/12/15 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 01/02/17 |
| Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency | 01/06/16 |
| curious lime roast beef | 01/06/16 |
| curious lime roast beef | 06/05/16 |
| Razzmatazz Space Halford | 03/26/16 |
| haunting galvanic faggotry gaming laptop | 01/02/17 |
| Peach personal credit line | 10/25/18 |
| Purple odious indian lodge hissy fit | 12/10/15 |
| cheese-eating flushed ape | 12/10/15 |
| Violent Hominid | 12/10/15 |
| adulterous prole business firm | 12/10/15 |
| Electric Factory Reset Button | 12/15/15 |
| concupiscible mahogany school cafeteria | 12/10/15 |
| glassy feces | 12/10/15 |
| talented zippy yarmulke | 12/10/15 |
| Slippery pontificating ticket booth | 12/11/15 |
| red step-uncle's house dragon | 12/12/15 |
| arrogant pistol | 12/16/15 |
| Frozen Set | 01/04/16 |
| Pearly sandwich main people | 11/09/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 12/11/15 |
| diverse heaven | 12/11/15 |
| Blue dopamine | 12/11/15 |
| Slippery pontificating ticket booth | 12/11/15 |
| Bipolar 180 twinkling uncleanness gay wizard | 12/12/15 |
| Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe | 01/25/16 |
| Supple gaping newt | 11/10/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 12/12/15 |
| Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess | 12/12/15 |
| Fighting Rigor | 12/12/15 |
| titillating jet hall goyim | 12/12/15 |
| Marvelous Genital Piercing | 12/15/15 |
| Idiotic canary hunting ground | 12/21/15 |
| Sickened Old Irish Cottage | 12/12/15 |
| Thriller kitchen | 12/12/15 |
| topaz travel guidebook | 12/12/15 |
| amethyst church regret | 12/12/15 |
| Coiffed wonderful background story really tough guy | 12/12/15 |
| Fragrant Cuckold New Version | 12/12/15 |
| glassy feces | 12/15/15 |
| glassy feces | 12/16/15 |
| exciting house queen of the night | 12/15/15 |
| Silver Flirting Crotch Famous Landscape Painting | 12/15/15 |
| Walnut Indecent Mexican Market | 12/15/15 |
| ebony laughsome stage macaca | 12/15/15 |
| bespoke vengeful gas station | 12/15/15 |
| tantric station tattoo | 12/15/15 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 12/15/15 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 12/15/15 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 12/15/15 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 12/15/15 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 12/15/15 |
| irradiated jade casino | 01/05/16 |
| Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe | 01/25/16 |
| heady jew stock car | 12/17/16 |
| Mildly autistic aromatic box office toaster | 05/18/16 |
| Lascivious Ratface | 08/12/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/09/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 11/09/16 |
| excitant locus | 11/09/16 |
| crimson shitlib | 10/22/20 |
| geriatric hospital jap | 12/15/15 |
| big site | 12/16/15 |
| High-end Pisswyrm | 12/16/15 |
| slimy theater laser beams | 12/16/15 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 12/16/15 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 12/17/15 |
| gay corn cake crackhouse | 12/18/15 |
| Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency | 01/06/16 |
| shaky duck-like french chef double fault | 12/18/15 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 12/21/15 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 12/21/15 |
| Idiotic canary hunting ground | 12/21/15 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 12/30/15 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 12/30/15 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 01/04/16 |
| Frozen Set | 01/04/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 01/05/16 |
| Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe | 01/25/16 |
| gay corn cake crackhouse | 01/05/16 |
| bearded cordovan giraffe internal respiration | 01/05/16 |
| soul-stirring striped hyena bawdyhouse | 01/05/16 |
| glittery gaped idea he suggested | 01/05/16 |
| flickering dilemma | 01/05/16 |
| glittery gaped idea he suggested | 01/05/16 |
| Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency | 01/06/16 |
| glittery gaped idea he suggested | 01/06/16 |
| flickering dilemma | 01/05/16 |
| Lascivious Ratface | 01/06/16 |
| Idiotic canary hunting ground | 01/07/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 01/08/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 01/08/16 |
| Idiotic canary hunting ground | 01/08/16 |
| gay corn cake crackhouse | 01/09/16 |
| Idiotic canary hunting ground | 01/10/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 01/18/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 01/19/16 |
| gay corn cake crackhouse | 01/21/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 01/25/16 |
| domesticated lettuce | 01/25/16 |
| Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe | 01/25/16 |
| domesticated lettuce | 02/09/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 09/06/16 |
| Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency | 11/05/18 |
| Saffron vibrant marketing idea | 01/29/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 02/01/16 |
| startled bisexual reading party boltzmann | 02/01/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 02/01/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 02/07/16 |
| bearded cordovan giraffe internal respiration | 02/09/16 |
| self-absorbed kitty cat | 02/09/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 02/20/16 |
| ocher forum | 02/20/16 |
| Mildly autistic aromatic box office toaster | 02/24/16 |
| Exhilarant chocolate address | 02/24/16 |
| Beady-eyed useless brakes pervert | 02/27/16 |
| exciting house queen of the night | 03/09/16 |
| hilarious gold dog poop brunch | 03/15/16 |
| Violent Hominid | 03/15/16 |
| Silver Flirting Crotch Famous Landscape Painting | 03/16/16 |
| rebellious green depressive | 02/24/16 |
| histrionic insecure windowlicker | 02/24/16 |
| Silver Flirting Crotch Famous Landscape Painting | 07/21/16 |
| Alcoholic den | 02/24/16 |
| Violent Hominid | 02/27/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/02/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/04/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/09/16 |
| bearded cordovan giraffe internal respiration | 03/09/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/15/16 |
| Mildly autistic aromatic box office toaster | 03/15/16 |
| naked stimulating trust fund | 03/15/16 |
| Dashing Doctorate | 03/15/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/16/16 |
| glassy feces | 03/16/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 03/23/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/23/16 |
| topaz travel guidebook | 03/26/16 |
| Smoky Vivacious Church Building | 03/26/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/26/16 |
| irradiated jade casino | 03/28/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 03/28/16 |
| cheese-eating flushed ape | 03/28/16 |
| Lascivious Ratface | 08/12/16 |
| Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency | 11/05/18 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/28/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/29/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 03/29/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 03/29/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/29/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/29/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 04/01/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 04/04/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 04/15/16 |
| medicated indigo range milk | 04/15/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 04/19/16 |
| Dead Skinny Woman | 04/20/16 |
| flesh nubile headpube | 04/20/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 04/24/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 04/25/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 04/26/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle mentally impaired sound barrier public bath | 04/26/16 |
| Citrine splenetic mental disorder | 04/30/16 |
| bonkers library faggot firefighter | 05/01/16 |
| bonkers library faggot firefighter | 11/07/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 05/02/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 05/02/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 05/03/16 |
| avocado contagious chapel party of the first part | 05/03/16 |
| Wine Masturbator | 05/03/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 05/04/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 05/04/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 05/05/16 |
| amethyst church regret | 05/05/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 05/05/16 |
| histrionic insecure windowlicker | 05/05/16 |
| Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess | 05/18/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 05/18/16 |
| Mildly autistic aromatic box office toaster | 05/18/16 |
| Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess | 05/18/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 05/29/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 06/20/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 06/29/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 07/14/16 |
| bull headed azure theatre tank | 07/15/16 |
| Lascivious Ratface | 07/15/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 07/17/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 07/17/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 07/21/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 07/22/16 |
| cream national pozpig | 07/22/16 |
| arousing elastic band half-breed | 07/23/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 07/24/16 |
| aquamarine resort | 07/25/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 07/25/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 07/27/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 08/05/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 08/09/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 08/12/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 08/12/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 08/12/16 |
| Submissive white incel | 08/12/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 08/30/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 08/30/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 09/06/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 09/13/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 09/14/16 |
| Sickened Old Irish Cottage | 09/14/16 |
| Sadistic aggressive locale | 09/15/16 |
| impressive cracking stead | 09/15/16 |
| curious lime roast beef | 09/15/16 |
| Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit | 09/15/16 |
| Adventurous shimmering principal's office weed whacker | 09/15/16 |
| Drab fat ankles | 09/19/16 |
| Drab fat ankles | 09/19/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 09/27/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 09/24/16 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 09/27/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 09/27/16 |
| glassy feces | 09/27/16 |
| angry native | 10/08/16 |
| Bateful puce tanning salon associate | 07/29/24 |
| Hairless Telephone | 09/28/16 |
| Sickened Old Irish Cottage | 09/28/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 09/28/16 |
| flesh nubile headpube | 09/28/16 |
| medicated indigo range milk | 09/28/16 |
| sticky fiercely-loyal piazza | 10/08/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 10/09/16 |
| Provocative Point Liquid Oxygen | 10/09/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 10/09/16 |
| multi-colored whorehouse haunted graveyard | 10/09/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 10/10/16 |
| aquamarine resort | 10/30/16 |
| Lascivious Ratface | 11/01/16 |
| Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit | 11/01/16 |
| Onyx plaza | 11/02/16 |
| ebony laughsome stage macaca | 11/02/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 11/07/16 |
| olive stag film | 11/08/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 11/08/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/08/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 11/08/16 |
| Know-it-all hell organic girlfriend | 11/08/16 |
| crawly boiling water | 11/08/16 |
| startled bisexual reading party boltzmann | 11/08/16 |
| Drab fat ankles | 11/08/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/08/16 |
| stirring twisted abode | 11/09/16 |
| Sadistic aggressive locale | 11/09/16 |
| Magenta cowardly location coldplay fan | 11/09/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/09/16 |
| Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit | 11/09/16 |
| stirring twisted abode | 11/09/16 |
| aquamarine resort | 11/09/16 |
| amethyst church regret | 11/09/16 |
| Mischievous love of her life institution | 12/03/16 |
| Supple gaping newt | 12/07/16 |
| heady jew stock car | 12/17/16 |
| orchid home cuck | 10/11/24 |
| Jet-lagged Temple Water Buffalo | 11/09/16 |
| floppy light office | 11/09/16 |
| Very tactful brilliant school turdskin | 11/09/16 |
| Balding circlehead | 11/09/16 |
| Mischievous love of her life institution | 11/09/16 |
| Lascivious Ratface | 11/09/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/09/16 |
| Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess | 11/09/16 |
| irate hideous shrine | 11/09/16 |
| Doobsian henna university antidepressant drug | 11/09/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/09/16 |
| cerebral costumed national security agency | 11/09/16 |
| Motley Foreskin | 11/09/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/09/16 |
| adulterous prole business firm | 11/09/16 |
| shaky duck-like french chef double fault | 11/10/16 |
| domesticated lettuce | 11/10/16 |
| curious lime roast beef | 11/10/16 |
| Comical garrison son of senegal | 11/10/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/10/16 |
| Hairless Telephone | 11/10/16 |
| ocher forum | 11/10/16 |
| Drab fat ankles | 11/14/16 |
| Sexy area filthpig | 11/14/16 |
| Underhanded corner | 12/04/16 |
| heady jew stock car | 12/17/16 |
| orchid home cuck | 10/11/24 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/25/16 |
| Mewling chestnut pit degenerate | 12/03/16 |
| multi-colored whorehouse haunted graveyard | 12/04/16 |
| claret spectacular property | 12/07/16 |
| curious lime roast beef | 12/07/16 |
| Mewling chestnut pit degenerate | 12/07/16 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 01/02/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 01/02/17 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 01/02/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 01/02/17 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 03/03/20 |
| curious lime roast beef | 01/02/17 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 01/16/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 01/20/17 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 01/20/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 01/23/17 |
| sticky fiercely-loyal piazza | 01/23/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 01/23/17 |
| frum hot messiness parlour | 01/23/17 |
| sticky fiercely-loyal piazza | 01/23/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 01/23/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 01/25/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 01/26/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 02/06/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 02/13/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 02/27/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 05/03/17 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 05/03/17 |
| Charismatic Ladyboy | 09/21/17 |
| Violent Hominid | 01/23/17 |
| Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit | 02/27/17 |
| Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency | 03/22/17 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 04/17/17 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 05/08/17 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 06/20/17 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 08/10/17 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 10/15/17 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 10/15/17 |
| Autistic Boyish Sanctuary Cumskin | 10/15/17 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/06/17 |
| Lake Swashbuckling Kitty Mad-dog Skullcap | 11/06/17 |
| chrome awkward hairy legs lay | 11/08/17 |
| sepia persian | 11/08/17 |
| appetizing codepig | 11/13/17 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 12/18/17 |
| irate hideous shrine | 12/18/17 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 12/18/17 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 01/30/18 |
| curious lime roast beef | 06/01/18 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 07/18/18 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 07/19/18 |
| Adventurous shimmering principal's office weed whacker | 09/20/18 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 09/25/18 |
| cheese-eating flushed ape | 10/06/18 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 10/06/18 |
| curious lime roast beef | 10/25/18 |
| impressive cracking stead | 10/25/18 |
| Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe | 11/05/18 |
| curious lime roast beef | 11/05/18 |
| Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency | 11/05/18 |
| curious lime roast beef | 11/05/18 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 01/08/19 |
| Hairraiser nowag menage | 02/23/19 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 03/13/19 |
| Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe | 06/24/19 |
| navy spot karate | 06/24/19 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 11/18/19 |
| Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit | 02/12/20 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 02/12/20 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 03/24/20 |
| Bronze mad cow disease deer antler | 03/24/20 |
| bull headed azure theatre tank | 04/04/20 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 04/26/20 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 05/13/20 |
| bull headed azure theatre tank | 06/05/20 |
| carnelian bbw cruise ship | 06/05/20 |
| bull headed azure theatre tank | 09/09/20 |
| Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit | 09/09/20 |
| Purple odious indian lodge hissy fit | 09/09/20 |
| center | 09/12/20 |
| infuriating death wish | 09/24/20 |
| navy spot karate | 10/09/20 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 10/10/20 |
| Cocky Pink Psychic Mother | 10/22/20 |
| Mischievous love of her life institution | 10/22/20 |
| crimson shitlib | 10/22/20 |
| crimson shitlib | 10/22/20 |
| Mustard preventive strike rehab | 03/23/22 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 10/27/20 |
| Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency | 10/27/20 |
| navy spot karate | 10/30/20 |
| Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad | 11/03/20 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/22/22 |
| painfully honest trailer park | 03/23/22 |
| Fluffy theater stage | 03/23/22 |
| house-broken stage | 03/23/22 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 07/25/22 |
| Purple odious indian lodge hissy fit | 07/25/22 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 10/23/22 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 11/16/22 |
| Drunken copper brethren | 04/25/23 |
| Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess | 04/25/23 |
| infuriating death wish | 04/29/23 |
| Bateful puce tanning salon associate | 05/28/23 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 02/22/24 |
| infuriating death wish | 02/23/24 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 05/23/24 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 08/26/24 |
| infuriating death wish | 09/13/24 |
| Purple odious indian lodge hissy fit | 09/13/24 |
| infuriating death wish | 10/18/24 |
| orchid home cuck | 10/11/24 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 11/06/24 |
| amethyst church regret | 03/04/25 |
| amethyst church regret | 03/04/25 |
| Adventurous shimmering principal's office weed whacker | 03/04/25 |
| orchid home cuck | 03/04/25 |
| translucent fantasy-prone alpha | 03/04/25 |
| apoplectic senate | 03/05/25 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/07/25 |
| unhinged community account | 03/07/25 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/08/25 |
| umber parlor | 03/08/25 |
| Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot | 03/08/25 |
| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: racy field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: curious lime roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: curious lime roast beef another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Razzmatazz Space Halford 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: haunting galvanic faggotry gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Peach personal credit line "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Purple odious indian lodge hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: cheese-eating flushed ape 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Violent Hominid 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: adulterous prole business firm Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Electric Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: concupiscible mahogany school cafeteria FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: glassy feces Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: talented zippy yarmulke Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Slippery pontificating ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: red step-uncle's house dragon Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: arrogant pistol Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Frozen Set Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Pearly sandwich main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: diverse heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Blue dopamine 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Slippery pontificating ticket booth November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Bipolar 180 twinkling uncleanness gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Supple gaping newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Fighting Rigor lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: titillating jet hall goyim March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Marvelous Genital Piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Idiotic canary hunting ground 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Sickened Old Irish Cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Thriller kitchen lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: topaz travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: amethyst church regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Coiffed wonderful background story really tough guy Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Fragrant Cuckold New Version Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: glassy feces OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: glassy feces And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: exciting house queen of the night 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Silver Flirting Crotch Famous Landscape Painting fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Walnut Indecent Mexican Market I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: ebony laughsome stage macaca 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: bespoke vengeful gas station February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: tantric station tattoo You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: irradiated jade casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: heady jew stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Mildly autistic aromatic box office toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Lascivious Ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: excitant locus Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: crimson shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: geriatric hospital jap This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: big site 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: High-end Pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: slimy theater laser beams Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: gay corn cake crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: shaky duck-like french chef double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Idiotic canary hunting ground 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Frozen Set flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: gay corn cake crackhouse From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: bearded cordovan giraffe internal respiration 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: soul-stirring striped hyena bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: glittery gaped idea he suggested An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: flickering dilemma 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: glittery gaped idea he suggested I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: glittery gaped idea he suggested Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: flickering dilemma No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Lascivious Ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Idiotic canary hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: irate hideous shrine 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Idiotic canary hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: gay corn cake crackhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Idiotic canary hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: gay corn cake crackhouse looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: domesticated lettuce 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: domesticated lettuce No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: irate hideous shrine (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Saffron vibrant marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: startled bisexual reading party boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: bearded cordovan giraffe internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: self-absorbed kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: ocher forum OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Mildly autistic aromatic box office toaster PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Exhilarant chocolate address The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Beady-eyed useless brakes pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: exciting house queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: hilarious gold dog poop brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Violent Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Silver Flirting Crotch Famous Landscape Painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: rebellious green depressive hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: histrionic insecure windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Silver Flirting Crotch Famous Landscape Painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Alcoholic den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Violent Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: bearded cordovan giraffe internal respiration yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Mildly autistic aromatic box office toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: naked stimulating trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: Dashing Doctorate truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: glassy feces March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: topaz travel guidebook http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Smoky Vivacious Church Building Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: irradiated jade casino jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: cheese-eating flushed ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Lascivious Ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Hairless Telephone lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Hairless Telephone "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Hairless Telephone interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: medicated indigo range milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: Dead Skinny Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: flesh nubile headpube I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle mentally impaired sound barrier public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Citrine splenetic mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: bonkers library faggot firefighter Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: bonkers library faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: avocado contagious chapel party of the first part holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Wine Masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: irate hideous shrine 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: amethyst church regret Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: histrionic insecure windowlicker Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Mildly autistic aromatic box office toaster In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: bull headed azure theatre tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Lascivious Ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: irate hideous shrine 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: cream national pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: arousing elastic band half-breed Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: aquamarine resort Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Hairless Telephone amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: irate hideous shrine holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Submissive white incel LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: irate hideous shrine 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: irate hideous shrine lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Hairless Telephone ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Sickened Old Irish Cottage Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Sadistic aggressive locale September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: impressive cracking stead September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: curious lime roast beef god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Adventurous shimmering principal's office weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Drab fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Drab fat ankles The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: irate hideous shrine let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: irate hideous shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: glassy feces This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: angry native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Bateful puce tanning salon associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Hairless Telephone http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Sickened Old Irish Cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: irate hideous shrine 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: flesh nubile headpube This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: medicated indigo range milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: sticky fiercely-loyal piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: irate hideous shrine hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Provocative Point Liquid Oxygen Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: irate hideous shrine doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: multi-colored whorehouse haunted graveyard half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Hairless Telephone nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: aquamarine resort close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Lascivious Ratface Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Onyx plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: ebony laughsome stage macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Hairless Telephone prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: olive stag film You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Hairless Telephone true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Hairless Telephone ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Know-it-all hell organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: crawly boiling water Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: startled bisexual reading party boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Drab fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: stirring twisted abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Sadistic aggressive locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Magenta cowardly location coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: stirring twisted abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: aquamarine resort it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: amethyst church regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Mischievous love of her life institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Supple gaping newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: heady jew stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: orchid home cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Jet-lagged Temple Water Buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: floppy light office Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Very tactful brilliant school turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Balding circlehead 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Mischievous love of her life institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Lascivious Ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: irate hideous shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Doobsian henna university antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: cerebral costumed national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Motley Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: adulterous prole business firm you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: shaky duck-like french chef double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: domesticated lettuce Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: curious lime roast beef bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Comical garrison son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Hairless Telephone ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: ocher forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Drab fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Sexy area filthpig They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Underhanded corner Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: heady jew stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: orchid home cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Mewling chestnut pit degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: multi-colored whorehouse haunted graveyard GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: claret spectacular property https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: curious lime roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Mewling chestnut pit degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: curious lime roast beef truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: sticky fiercely-loyal piazza TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: frum hot messiness parlour I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: sticky fiercely-loyal piazza it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Charismatic Ladyboy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Violent Hominid this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Autistic Boyish Sanctuary Cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Lake Swashbuckling Kitty Mad-dog Skullcap credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: chrome awkward hairy legs lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: sepia persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: appetizing codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: irate hideous shrine Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: curious lime roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Adventurous shimmering principal's office weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: cheese-eating flushed ape It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: curious lime roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: impressive cracking stead Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: curious lime roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: curious lime roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Hairraiser nowag menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Passionate nofapping sweet tailpipe There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: navy spot karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Bronze mad cow disease deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: bull headed azure theatre tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: bull headed azure theatre tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: carnelian bbw cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: bull headed azure theatre tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Vigorous generalized bond orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Purple odious indian lodge hissy fit Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: infuriating death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: navy spot karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Cocky Pink Psychic Mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Mischievous love of her life institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: crimson shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: crimson shitlib https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Mustard preventive strike rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Orange razzle stain international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: navy spot karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Crystalline Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: painfully honest trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Fluffy theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: house-broken stage 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Purple odious indian lodge hissy fit A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Drunken copper brethren Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Drunken copper brethren https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Mind-boggling nighttime place of business jewess why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: infuriating death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Bateful puce tanning salon associate FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: infuriating death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: infuriating death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Purple odious indian lodge hissy fit One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: infuriating death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: orchid home cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: amethyst church regret 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: amethyst church regret https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Adventurous shimmering principal's office weed whacker Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: orchid home cuck The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: translucent fantasy-prone alpha He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: apoplectic senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: unhinged community account 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: umber parlor Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Trip greedy nursing home coffee pot Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#49679495) |