The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Topaz Wrinkle | 12/10/15 |
| walnut curious juggernaut | 12/12/15 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 01/02/17 |
| big-titted charcoal gaping | 01/06/16 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 01/06/16 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 06/05/16 |
| High-end laser beams business firm | 03/26/16 |
| gay mental disorder | 01/02/17 |
| naked national security agency | 10/25/18 |
| stubborn death wish | 12/10/15 |
| Dark gas station | 12/10/15 |
| exhilarant boltzmann | 12/10/15 |
| magenta theater | 12/10/15 |
| lascivious ultramarine police squad | 12/15/15 |
| Mind-boggling spot | 12/10/15 |
| supple native | 12/10/15 |
| disturbing trip location | 12/10/15 |
| insane church | 12/11/15 |
| Diverse property weed whacker | 12/12/15 |
| Sadistic Contagious Striped Hyena | 12/16/15 |
| Mewling ticket booth | 01/04/16 |
| Turquoise stain | 11/09/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 12/11/15 |
| Hairraiser translucent piazza | 12/11/15 |
| violet razzle parlour mexican | 12/11/15 |
| insane church | 12/11/15 |
| heady temple | 12/12/15 |
| bistre aromatic crotch | 01/25/16 |
| talented deranged round eye | 11/10/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 12/12/15 |
| Pearl harsh school | 12/12/15 |
| beady-eyed toilet seat | 12/12/15 |
| startling abode | 12/12/15 |
| Nighttime Violent Market | 12/15/15 |
| Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler | 12/21/15 |
| Chocolate slimy house filthpig | 12/12/15 |
| blue space | 12/12/15 |
| Misunderstood Bawdyhouse | 12/12/15 |
| Onyx orchestra pit alpha | 12/12/15 |
| Concupiscible Frozen Stag Film Faggotry | 12/12/15 |
| ruddy thriller heaven pozpig | 12/12/15 |
| supple native | 12/15/15 |
| supple native | 12/16/15 |
| Flatulent locale | 12/15/15 |
| electric fighting tanning salon | 12/15/15 |
| Abusive Really Tough Guy | 12/15/15 |
| sinister adventurous queen of the night hominid | 12/15/15 |
| maize impressive digit ratio area | 12/15/15 |
| Marvelous affirmative action national | 12/15/15 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| Exciting step-uncle's house fanboi | 01/05/16 |
| bistre aromatic crotch | 01/25/16 |
| confused hot address | 12/17/16 |
| Charismatic Rehab Windowlicker | 05/18/16 |
| Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage | 08/12/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 11/09/16 |
| pink adulterous church building | 11/09/16 |
| Fragrant idea he suggested bbw | 10/22/20 |
| galvanic mediation | 12/15/15 |
| Narrow-minded meetinghouse | 12/16/15 |
| Racy flesh double fault famous landscape painting | 12/16/15 |
| glittery stead generalized bond | 12/16/15 |
| domesticated base therapy | 12/16/15 |
| domesticated base therapy | 12/17/15 |
| mentally impaired laughsome forum | 12/18/15 |
| big-titted charcoal gaping | 01/06/16 |
| stimulating stage yarmulke | 12/18/15 |
| domesticated base therapy | 12/21/15 |
| domesticated base therapy | 12/21/15 |
| Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler | 12/21/15 |
| domesticated base therapy | 12/30/15 |
| domesticated base therapy | 12/30/15 |
| domesticated base therapy | 01/04/16 |
| Mewling ticket booth | 01/04/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 01/05/16 |
| bistre aromatic crotch | 01/25/16 |
| mentally impaired laughsome forum | 01/05/16 |
| avocado pisswyrm | 01/05/16 |
| Self-centered telephone people who are hurt | 01/05/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Cream Hospital | 01/05/16 |
| infuriating dilemma | 01/05/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Cream Hospital | 01/05/16 |
| big-titted charcoal gaping | 01/06/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Cream Hospital | 01/06/16 |
| infuriating dilemma | 01/05/16 |
| Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage | 01/06/16 |
| Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler | 01/07/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 01/08/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 01/08/16 |
| Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler | 01/08/16 |
| mentally impaired laughsome forum | 01/09/16 |
| Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler | 01/10/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 01/18/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 01/19/16 |
| mentally impaired laughsome forum | 01/21/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 01/25/16 |
| medicated henna pistol | 01/25/16 |
| bistre aromatic crotch | 01/25/16 |
| medicated henna pistol | 02/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 09/06/16 |
| big-titted charcoal gaping | 11/05/18 |
| Shivering brass locus | 01/29/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 02/01/16 |
| Hilarious Gaped Fat Ankles | 02/01/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 02/01/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 02/07/16 |
| avocado pisswyrm | 02/09/16 |
| rambunctious liquid oxygen toaster | 02/09/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 02/20/16 |
| purple dashing station coldplay fan | 02/20/16 |
| Charismatic Rehab Windowlicker | 02/24/16 |
| stirring office gaming laptop | 02/24/16 |
| Talking pale incel | 02/27/16 |
| Flatulent locale | 03/09/16 |
| puce french personal credit line | 03/15/16 |
| exhilarant boltzmann | 03/15/16 |
| electric fighting tanning salon | 03/16/16 |
| pearly impertinent dingle berry hell | 02/24/16 |
| Soul-stirring Rigor University | 02/24/16 |
| electric fighting tanning salon | 07/21/16 |
| Yellow cracking lay depressive | 02/24/16 |
| exhilarant boltzmann | 02/27/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/02/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/04/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/09/16 |
| avocado pisswyrm | 03/09/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/15/16 |
| Charismatic Rehab Windowlicker | 03/15/16 |
| Comical Psychic | 03/15/16 |
| boyish learning disabled whorehouse potus | 03/15/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/16/16 |
| supple native | 03/16/16 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 03/23/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/23/16 |
| Misunderstood Bawdyhouse | 03/26/16 |
| Big Cordovan Patrolman | 03/26/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/26/16 |
| Exciting step-uncle's house fanboi | 03/28/16 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 03/28/16 |
| Dark gas station | 03/28/16 |
| Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage | 08/12/16 |
| big-titted charcoal gaping | 11/05/18 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/28/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/29/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 03/29/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 03/29/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/29/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/29/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 04/01/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 04/04/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 04/15/16 |
| cowardly wonderful pit | 04/15/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 04/19/16 |
| nofapping mood lettuce | 04/20/16 |
| wild jew | 04/20/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 04/24/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 04/25/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 04/26/16 |
| flickering athletic conference | 04/26/16 |
| Dun alcoholic chapel keepsake machete | 04/30/16 |
| orange slippery lodge becky | 05/01/16 |
| orange slippery lodge becky | 11/07/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 05/02/16 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 05/02/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 05/03/16 |
| anal twinkling uncleanness | 05/03/16 |
| razzmatazz fuchsia black woman | 05/03/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 05/04/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 05/04/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 05/05/16 |
| Onyx orchestra pit alpha | 05/05/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 05/05/16 |
| Soul-stirring Rigor University | 05/05/16 |
| Pearl harsh school | 05/18/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 05/18/16 |
| Charismatic Rehab Windowlicker | 05/18/16 |
| Pearl harsh school | 05/18/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 05/29/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 06/20/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 06/29/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 07/14/16 |
| Bateful sexy hall organic girlfriend | 07/15/16 |
| Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage | 07/15/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 07/17/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 07/17/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 07/21/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 07/22/16 |
| 180 Twisted New Version Cuckoldry | 07/22/16 |
| mustard mad-dog skullcap | 07/23/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 07/24/16 |
| Floppy shrine | 07/25/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 07/25/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 07/27/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 08/05/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 08/09/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 08/12/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 08/12/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 08/12/16 |
| vigorous cyan shitlib | 08/12/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 08/30/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 08/30/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 09/06/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 09/13/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 09/14/16 |
| Chocolate slimy house filthpig | 09/14/16 |
| deep titillating dopamine | 09/15/16 |
| scarlet crackhouse | 09/15/16 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 09/15/16 |
| passionate garrison partner | 09/15/16 |
| Green Travel Guidebook | 09/15/16 |
| cerebral cheese-eating resort preventive strike | 09/19/16 |
| cerebral cheese-eating resort preventive strike | 09/19/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 09/27/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 09/24/16 |
| domesticated base therapy | 09/27/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 09/27/16 |
| supple native | 09/27/16 |
| Godawful cruise ship old irish cottage | 10/08/16 |
| Vivacious ladyboy | 07/29/24 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 09/28/16 |
| Chocolate slimy house filthpig | 09/28/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 09/28/16 |
| wild jew | 09/28/16 |
| cowardly wonderful pit | 09/28/16 |
| odious swollen pocket flask multi-billionaire | 10/08/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 10/09/16 |
| Swashbuckling Glassy Sweet Tailpipe Cumskin | 10/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 10/09/16 |
| excitant abnormal nursing home | 10/09/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 10/10/16 |
| Floppy shrine | 10/30/16 |
| Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage | 11/01/16 |
| passionate garrison partner | 11/01/16 |
| disgusting foreskin international law enforcement agency | 11/02/16 |
| sinister adventurous queen of the night hominid | 11/02/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 11/07/16 |
| spruce bonkers den jap | 11/08/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 11/08/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/08/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 11/08/16 |
| Provocative angry state | 11/08/16 |
| spectacular newt | 11/08/16 |
| Hilarious Gaped Fat Ankles | 11/08/16 |
| cerebral cheese-eating resort preventive strike | 11/08/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/08/16 |
| mahogany home | 11/09/16 |
| deep titillating dopamine | 11/09/16 |
| Crimson love of her life | 11/09/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| passionate garrison partner | 11/09/16 |
| mahogany home | 11/09/16 |
| Floppy shrine | 11/09/16 |
| Onyx orchestra pit alpha | 11/09/16 |
| Saffron Irradiated Elastic Band | 12/03/16 |
| talented deranged round eye | 12/07/16 |
| confused hot address | 12/17/16 |
| Vibrant senate | 10/11/24 |
| Seedy point place of business | 11/09/16 |
| Effete Ruby Library Skinny Woman | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic maniacal main people plaza | 11/09/16 |
| arousing idiot | 11/09/16 |
| Saffron Irradiated Elastic Band | 11/09/16 |
| Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage | 11/09/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| Pearl harsh school | 11/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 11/09/16 |
| jet-lagged public bath | 11/09/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| hateful ebony school cafeteria | 11/09/16 |
| multi-colored indirect expression casino | 11/09/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| magenta theater | 11/09/16 |
| stimulating stage yarmulke | 11/10/16 |
| medicated henna pistol | 11/10/16 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 11/10/16 |
| ivory turdskin corner | 11/10/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/10/16 |
| copper brethren internal respiration | 11/10/16 |
| purple dashing station coldplay fan | 11/10/16 |
| cerebral cheese-eating resort preventive strike | 11/14/16 |
| obsidian degenerate kitchen | 11/14/16 |
| Sable Duck-like Menage Pervert | 12/04/16 |
| confused hot address | 12/17/16 |
| Vibrant senate | 10/11/24 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/25/16 |
| theatre genital piercing | 12/03/16 |
| excitant abnormal nursing home | 12/04/16 |
| Lemon fantasy-prone clown | 12/07/16 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 12/07/16 |
| theatre genital piercing | 12/07/16 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 01/02/17 |
| smoky chad macaca | 01/02/17 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 01/02/17 |
| smoky chad macaca | 01/02/17 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 03/03/20 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 01/02/17 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 01/16/17 |
| smoky chad macaca | 01/20/17 |
| domesticated base therapy | 01/20/17 |
| smoky chad macaca | 01/23/17 |
| odious swollen pocket flask multi-billionaire | 01/23/17 |
| smoky chad macaca | 01/23/17 |
| lavender institution | 01/23/17 |
| odious swollen pocket flask multi-billionaire | 01/23/17 |
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| smoky chad macaca | 01/25/17 |
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| smoky chad macaca | 02/06/17 |
| smoky chad macaca | 02/13/17 |
| smoky chad macaca | 02/27/17 |
| smoky chad macaca | 05/03/17 |
| domesticated base therapy | 05/03/17 |
| smoky chad macaca | 09/21/17 |
| exhilarant boltzmann | 01/23/17 |
| passionate garrison partner | 02/27/17 |
| big-titted charcoal gaping | 03/22/17 |
| domesticated base therapy | 04/17/17 |
| domesticated base therapy | 05/08/17 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 06/20/17 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 08/10/17 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 10/15/17 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 10/15/17 |
| primrose site halford | 10/15/17 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/06/17 |
| thirsty karate indian lodge | 11/06/17 |
| Jet Buck-toothed Theater Stage Circlehead | 11/08/17 |
| parlor | 11/08/17 |
| White Underhanded Trump Supporter Ceo | 11/13/17 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 12/18/17 |
| razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface | 12/18/17 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 12/18/17 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 01/30/18 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 06/01/18 |
| domesticated base therapy | 07/18/18 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 07/19/18 |
| Green Travel Guidebook | 09/20/18 |
| domesticated base therapy | 09/25/18 |
| Dark gas station | 10/06/18 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 10/06/18 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 10/25/18 |
| scarlet crackhouse | 10/25/18 |
| bistre aromatic crotch | 11/05/18 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 11/05/18 |
| big-titted charcoal gaping | 11/05/18 |
| Doobsian magical legend center | 11/05/18 |
| domesticated base therapy | 01/08/19 |
| Insecure Field | 02/23/19 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 03/13/19 |
| bistre aromatic crotch | 06/24/19 |
| Mint sound barrier | 06/24/19 |
| domesticated base therapy | 11/18/19 |
| passionate garrison partner | 02/12/20 |
| domesticated base therapy | 02/12/20 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 03/24/20 |
| Iridescent Sandwich | 03/24/20 |
| Bateful sexy hall organic girlfriend | 04/04/20 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 04/26/20 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 05/13/20 |
| Bateful sexy hall organic girlfriend | 06/05/20 |
| out-of-control honey-headed milk kitty cat | 06/05/20 |
| Bateful sexy hall organic girlfriend | 09/09/20 |
| passionate garrison partner | 09/09/20 |
| stubborn death wish | 09/09/20 |
| brunch | 09/12/20 |
| Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag | 09/24/20 |
| Mint sound barrier | 10/09/20 |
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| fiercely-loyal tank set | 10/22/20 |
| Saffron Irradiated Elastic Band | 10/22/20 |
| Fragrant idea he suggested bbw | 10/22/20 |
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| Aggressive Box Office Electric Furnace | 03/23/22 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 10/27/20 |
| big-titted charcoal gaping | 10/27/20 |
| Mint sound barrier | 10/30/20 |
| Jade appetizing ape | 11/03/20 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/22/22 |
| codepig | 03/23/22 |
| trailer park | 03/23/22 |
| sickened prole | 03/23/22 |
| domesticated base therapy | 07/25/22 |
| stubborn death wish | 07/25/22 |
| domesticated base therapy | 10/23/22 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 11/16/22 |
| Topaz Wrinkle | 04/25/23 |
| Pearl harsh school | 04/25/23 |
| Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag | 04/29/23 |
| Vivacious ladyboy | 05/28/23 |
| domesticated base therapy | 02/22/24 |
| Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag | 02/23/24 |
| domesticated base therapy | 05/23/24 |
| domesticated base therapy | 08/26/24 |
| Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag | 09/13/24 |
| stubborn death wish | 09/13/24 |
| Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag | 10/18/24 |
| Vibrant senate | 10/11/24 |
| domesticated base therapy | 11/06/24 |
| Onyx orchestra pit alpha | 03/04/25 |
| Onyx orchestra pit alpha | 03/04/25 |
| Green Travel Guidebook | 03/04/25 |
| Vibrant senate | 03/04/25 |
| aquamarine roommate | 03/04/25 |
| Carmine hairy legs | 03/05/25 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/07/25 |
| Slap-happy Light Gunner | 03/07/25 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/08/25 |
| claret background story cuck | 03/08/25 |
| domesticated base therapy | 03/08/25 |
| exhilarant boltzmann | 02/18/26 |
| domesticated base therapy | 05/15/26 |
| slate hunting ground | 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: walnut curious juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: big-titted charcoal gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Doobsian magical legend center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Doobsian magical legend center another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: High-end laser beams business firm 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: gay mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: naked national security agency "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: stubborn death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Dark gas station 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: exhilarant boltzmann 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: magenta theater Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: lascivious ultramarine police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Mind-boggling spot FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: supple native Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: disturbing trip location Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: insane church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Diverse property weed whacker Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Sadistic Contagious Striped Hyena Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Mewling ticket booth Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: startling abode March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Nighttime Violent Market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Chocolate slimy house filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: blue space lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Concupiscible Frozen Stag Film Faggotry Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: ruddy thriller heaven pozpig Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: supple native OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: supple native And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Flatulent locale 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Abusive Really Tough Guy I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: sinister adventurous queen of the night hominid 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: maize impressive digit ratio area February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Marvelous affirmative action national You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Exciting step-uncle's house fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: bistre aromatic crotch Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: confused hot address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Charismatic Rehab Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: pink adulterous church building Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Fragrant idea he suggested bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: galvanic mediation This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: glittery stead generalized bond Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: domesticated base therapy Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: domesticated base therapy Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: mentally impaired laughsome forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: big-titted charcoal gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: stimulating stage yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: domesticated base therapy Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: domesticated base therapy "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: domesticated base therapy "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: domesticated base therapy One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: domesticated base therapy This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Mewling ticket booth flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: bistre aromatic crotch Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: mentally impaired laughsome forum From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Cream Hospital An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: infuriating dilemma 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Cream Hospital I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: big-titted charcoal gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Cream Hospital Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: infuriating dilemma No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: domesticated base therapy “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: mentally impaired laughsome forum http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Motley Sanctuary Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: domesticated base therapy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: domesticated base therapy Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: mentally impaired laughsome forum looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: bistre aromatic crotch You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: medicated henna pistol No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345881) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: big-titted charcoal gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162047) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29727124) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29771453) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: purple dashing station coldplay fan OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Charismatic Rehab Windowlicker PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903568) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: stirring office gaming laptop The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903615) |
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this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Soul-stirring Rigor University (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: electric fighting tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987707) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: exhilarant boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: avocado pisswyrm yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Charismatic Rehab Windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Comical Psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066291) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: domesticated base therapy It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: supple native March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Misunderstood Bawdyhouse http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Exciting step-uncle's house fanboi jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Dark gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: big-titted charcoal gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: domesticated base therapy "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: domesticated base therapy "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: copper brethren internal respiration lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: copper brethren internal respiration "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: domesticated base therapy http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: domesticated base therapy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: domesticated base therapy "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: copper brethren internal respiration interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: cowardly wonderful pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: nofapping mood lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: wild jew I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: flickering athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Dun alcoholic chapel keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: orange slippery lodge becky Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: orange slippery lodge becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: domesticated base therapy The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: anal twinkling uncleanness holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30398720) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30405223) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: domesticated base therapy Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Onyx orchestra pit alpha Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Soul-stirring Rigor University Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Pearl harsh school This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Charismatic Rehab Windowlicker In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Pearl harsh school cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: domesticated base therapy Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: domesticated base therapy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Bateful sexy hall organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: domesticated base therapy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: 180 Twisted New Version Cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: mustard mad-dog skullcap Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Floppy shrine Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: copper brethren internal respiration amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: domesticated base therapy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: vigorous cyan shitlib LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: domesticated base therapy Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: copper brethren internal respiration ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Chocolate slimy house filthpig Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: deep titillating dopamine September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: scarlet crackhouse September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Doobsian magical legend center god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: passionate garrison partner XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Green Travel Guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: cerebral cheese-eating resort preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: cerebral cheese-eating resort preventive strike The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: domesticated base therapy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: supple native This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Godawful cruise ship old irish cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Vivacious ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: copper brethren internal respiration http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Chocolate slimy house filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: wild jew This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: cowardly wonderful pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: odious swollen pocket flask multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Swashbuckling Glassy Sweet Tailpipe Cumskin Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: excitant abnormal nursing home half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: copper brethren internal respiration nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Floppy shrine close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: passionate garrison partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: disgusting foreskin international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: sinister adventurous queen of the night hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: copper brethren internal respiration prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: spruce bonkers den jap You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: copper brethren internal respiration true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: copper brethren internal respiration ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Provocative angry state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: spectacular newt Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Hilarious Gaped Fat Ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: cerebral cheese-eating resort preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: mahogany home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: deep titillating dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Crimson love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: passionate garrison partner GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: mahogany home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Floppy shrine it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Onyx orchestra pit alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Saffron Irradiated Elastic Band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: talented deranged round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: confused hot address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Vibrant senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Seedy point place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Effete Ruby Library Skinny Woman Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: histrionic maniacal main people plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: arousing idiot 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Saffron Irradiated Elastic Band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Indigo Self-absorbed Half-breed Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Pearl harsh school this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: jet-lagged public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: hateful ebony school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: multi-colored indirect expression casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: magenta theater you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: stimulating stage yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: medicated henna pistol Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Doobsian magical legend center bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: ivory turdskin corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: copper brethren internal respiration ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: purple dashing station coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: cerebral cheese-eating resort preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: obsidian degenerate kitchen They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Sable Duck-like Menage Pervert Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: confused hot address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Vibrant senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: theatre genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: excitant abnormal nursing home GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Lemon fantasy-prone clown https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Doobsian magical legend center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: theatre genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: smoky chad macaca October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: smoky chad macaca ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Doobsian magical legend center truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: smoky chad macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: smoky chad macaca http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: odious swollen pocket flask multi-billionaire TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: smoky chad macaca It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: lavender institution I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: odious swollen pocket flask multi-billionaire it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: smoky chad macaca The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: smoky chad macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: smoky chad macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: smoky chad macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: smoky chad macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: smoky chad macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: smoky chad macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: smoky chad macaca https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: exhilarant boltzmann this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: passionate garrison partner One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: big-titted charcoal gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: domesticated base therapy https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: primrose site halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: thirsty karate indian lodge credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Jet Buck-toothed Theater Stage Circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: White Underhanded Trump Supporter Ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: razzle-dazzle sooty range ratface Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Doobsian magical legend center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: domesticated base therapy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Green Travel Guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: domesticated base therapy The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Dark gas station It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Doobsian magical legend center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: scarlet crackhouse Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: bistre aromatic crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Doobsian magical legend center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: big-titted charcoal gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Doobsian magical legend center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: domesticated base therapy What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Insecure Field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: bistre aromatic crotch There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Mint sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: passionate garrison partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Iridescent Sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Bateful sexy hall organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Bateful sexy hall organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: out-of-control honey-headed milk kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Bateful sexy hall organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: passionate garrison partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: stubborn death wish Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Mint sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: fiercely-loyal tank set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Saffron Irradiated Elastic Band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Fragrant idea he suggested bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Fragrant idea he suggested bbw https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Aggressive Box Office Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: big-titted charcoal gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Mint sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Jade appetizing ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: sickened prole 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: stubborn death wish A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Topaz Wrinkle Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Topaz Wrinkle https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Pearl harsh school why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Vivacious ladyboy FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: domesticated base therapy https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: stubborn death wish One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Burgundy Principal's Office Nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Vibrant senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Onyx orchestra pit alpha 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Onyx orchestra pit alpha https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Green Travel Guidebook Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Vibrant senate The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: aquamarine roommate He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Carmine hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: domesticated base therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Slap-happy Light Gunner 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: domesticated base therapy "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: claret background story cuck Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: domesticated base therapy Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: exhilarant boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: domesticated base therapy ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: slate hunting ground i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#50060136) |